Talk:Morning Musume/@comment-120.149.96.86-20150829193112/@comment-4695693-20151220022640

Here are my thoughts:

'''Most likely: I. Haruna > Erina''' Haruna: As mentioned before it´s her age. Also: On hello online somebody mentioned that Sayumi and Haruna were once discussing about feeling the training more and more the older they get and how it´s getting harder and more painful. I remember this too but don´t know when or where exactly it was. Probably around the wake up prank? Ofc she is "just" 21... but on the other hand she was never somebody with body strength hence her admittet lack on dancing skills and body tension while dancing. And wasn´t there somebody who couldn´t keep up with the younger girls anymore?

Erina: I don´t really have a reason. Erina is an underdog. She is shining through her athletic skills but is she ending like Niigaki and Sayumi (staying... forever?) or rather like Makoto and Asami (unrecognized)? This year many people expected her to graduate also without a real reason. It´s just a feeling. Also she was the only one out of the chosen 4 underdogs (Kanon, Erina, Haruka, Haruna) who rather got physical challenges and attention rather then a vocal and visual real center push (OMW/Sukatto/Imasugu).

also possible but less likely: Masaki, Kanon > Mizuki Masaki & Kanon:

Masaki is a girl that loves attention. A rly big attention seeker. I wonder if that´s enough for her right now it seems to be quite ok for her but she loves to be pushed. While both her and Riho mentioned they aren´t feeling challenged as much as they used to. (we know Riho is right know in another position)

Kanon is a pessimistic girl and I really hope she won´t give up her dreams and wait another so-and-so years until they say "uhm yeah, graduate?". I could see her having enough of it one day and putting herself down a lot. She often said things like "I didn´t feel like/was wondering if I was needed for X years". On the other hand many girls seem to like her and support her no matter what (Sakura, Haruka, I. Haruna, Ayumi and her said they were getting closer the last year and visited Disneyland together. She used to be rly close to Riho in their early days. She didn´t like Erina at the beginning but got closer to her about 2 years ago. Sakura said she is the one she comes along best with, at her career-start and so on....).

Mizuki

Mizuki is with HP for a long time now (counting her egg days) and even if she is 2nd oldest I don´t think that she´s next. If there is somebody who loves Morning Musume it´s her. She always dreamed of being a member of Momusu, even as a little kid and couldn´t believe her luck. If somebody is living her dream in this group, it´s her and she still seems to have not just a lot of potential but also still wants it. She is in both, dancing and singing pretty good, but not the best, still can improve a lot. Seems to be a humble rich girl and was often crying when somebody suddenly left. I don´t think she will stop this early. Being "quite old" she is still much younger than sayumi and even if so... Sayumi and Reina graduated after the 7th and 8th gen, Risa and Ai graduated after or in time with 7th/8th gen. It´s not impossible. The 9th generation stayed together for the longest time among all generations right now it´s likely that more and more girls will graduate at a "high age" (idol-wise).

unlikely: Sakura & Ayumi Saku: There are aces that stay long and there are aces like Goto & Sayashi and I have a feeling Saku is rather the 1st kind of lead singer. She was never that popular or pushed too hard, what happened to Riho (& scandal Goto & Kago). She´s also not a loner anymore (poor Riho somehow took that role).

Ayumi isn´t the best singer but a good rapper and amazing dancer with a lot of stamina. She´s about the same age as Erina and this also makes her rather a candidate to graduate than the younger girls (just like I. Haruna, Mizuki, the older girls ofc). Other that that there is not much of a reason to let her graduate. She looks young - she seems happy - she´s energetic.

very unlikely: Haruka, O. Haruna, Miki, Maria, Akane

Haruka and Maria recently mentioned that they want to be leader one day.

Haruka is a candidate for getting pushed a bit more from time to time both visually and vocally (TIKI BUN, OMW).

Also: 12th gen just joined and those 5 are still pretty young especially Haga who is to me a girl with much potential (she seems to have a natural talent for languages) but still seems to be rly shy on stage when there are just a few members. It´s not yet her time to shine, but she has plenty of time. She has much fun when there are many girls but when the focus is on her she seems quite shy and awkward, cute.

Ogata still needs some time, her vocals aren´t the best yet, but I guess she will improve with time, she isn´t as nervous as Akane but her voice is sometimes almost out of breath and kinda off-tune.

Maria seems to be happy all the time. Her facial expressions are great her vocals need some training but next to Miki she seems the most stable in her generation.

Miki is the most stable in her generation and most likely the one who gets the push as 1st (also had already a lead and will for sure help to communicate with the international community).